The analyst puts the odds of altcoins beating Bitcoin this cycle at about 40%, sideways trading at 50% and a break below the floor at 10%.
Crypto analyst Dennis Liu, who posts as VirtualBacon, says he is the most bullish on altcoins he has been in four years.
In a video shared on X, he credited a Federal Reserve balance sheet that has grown again since last November for why this cycle could treat them better than the one that ran from October 2023 to October 2025.
Altcoins Still Sit Near Their Floor Against Bitcoin
Liu’s first argument is that the current Bitcoin cycle remains early, which he considers a favorable time to trade altcoins. His second is the altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio, measured using TOTAL2 excluding stablecoins and divided by Bitcoin. Liu put that ratio at 0.48, close to a floor around 0.40, and compared it with levels of roughly 0.45-0.46 during the bear market months of April through June.
He argues that altcoins have barely recovered relative to BTC despite Bitcoin’s rebound, leaving them cheaper by that measure. The third factor is entry timing: after a small breakout following Bitcoin’s bottom, altcoins retraced, giving traders a chance to enter after the first move rather than chase it.
Liu’s main argument is macroeconomic. He pointed out the rapid expansion of the Fed balance sheet in 2020-2021 when altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, versus the contraction from October 2023 to October 2025 when they underperformed. The balance sheet, he noted, has been rising again since November 2025.
“That condition alone, I believe, will be the deciding factor to give us a stronger altcoin cycle in this cycle,” he explained.
Still, he did not forecast a repeat of the 2020-2021 boom. Liu estimated a 50% chance of altcoins moving sideways relative to Bitcoin, a 40% chance of them improving, and a 10% chance of further underperformance. Even a flat ratio, in his view, could produce a better cycle than 2023-2025.
Median Altcoin Is Ahead This Year, but Prices Slipped
Matthew Hyland, another market analyst, backed the view in a post on X, noting that the median altcoin is ahead of Bitcoin year to date in 2026, something that has not happened since 2021. In a separate post, he forecast gains of 1,000% to 100,000% and claimed his data places the market where it stood in early 2016 and mid-2020.
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Prices have not followed this week. As CryptoPotato reported earlier, Bitcoin was rejected just under $85,000, and the total crypto market cap lost more than $60 billion from the prior day’s peak. BTC now trades around $82,000, and its dominance over altcoins is over 58% per CoinGecko. The same tracker shows Ethereum near $2,400, down 2% weekly, while Monero stands apart at roughly $613, a seven-day gain of 8%.
