Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $124,000 in mid-August. The momentum has since cooled, and the asset experienced intense, volatile price action in recent weeks. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $110,958 in a notable pullback from its peak, while leaving investors debating on what’s next.
Joao Wedson believes that Bitcoin’s fate may hinge on whether its four-year cycles remain valid. He even predicted a looming bear market with a $50,000 bottom.
Brace for Impact
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, has warned that Bitcoin could enter a bear market as early as next month if its historic four-year price cycles remain intact.
According to his tweet, this would mark the end of the current bullish phase and potentially drive BTC to a capitulation bottom around $50,000 by late 2026. This timing aligns with fractal patterns stretching back more than a decade, in which Bitcoin has consistently peaked roughly 18 months after halving events before retracing heavily.
While Wedson’s analysis is grounded in historical cycles, today’s environment is hugely dominated by factors such as ETF inflows, institutional demand, and unprecedented global liquidity, all of which could disrupt these patterns. Past instances show that investors often underestimate the persistence of cycles, which leads to disappointment when they assume this time is different.
Wedson said that some market experts may counter his forecast and argue that BTC may still climb past $140,000 before any prolonged downturn, particularly if momentum from Asia-US liquidity corridors continues to fuel rallies. Others point to external factors, such as Elon Musk’s cryptic suggestion that US political turbulence could spark volatility in Q4 2025 and influence the market beyond the four-year cycle.
Clash Over Bitcoin’s Q4 Fate
Quinten Francois, host of CoinCompass, pushed back against the prediction, saying he isn’t convinced the “top in Q4” narrative is accurate. According to Francois, while a local top in Q4 is possible, the broader cycle is likely to extend further, as the liquidity cycle itself has not yet concluded.
His comments suggest that despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s overall bullish trajectory could continue beyond 2025.
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